{"id":22942,"date":"2024-12-02T10:26:01","date_gmt":"2024-12-02T10:26:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/?p=22942"},"modified":"2025-03-12T17:03:14","modified_gmt":"2025-03-12T17:03:14","slug":"global-credit-bullets-montag-2-dezember-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/de\/market-views-de\/global-credit-bullets-montag-2-dezember-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Montag, 2. Dezember 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Frankreich &#8211; Haushaltsstreit geht in die n\u00e4chste Runde<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In Frankreich sorgt das Ringen um die Staatsfinanzen f\u00fcr politische Turbulenzen. Da die rechtsnationale Partei Rassemblement National (RN) um Marine Le Pen weitere Zugest\u00e4ndnisse bei den im Haushaltsplan enthaltenen Gesetzesentw\u00fcrfen fordert, droht Premierminister Barnier ein Misstrauensvotum im Dezember. Das w\u00e4re der letzte Ausweg, um den Haushalt im Jahr 2024 zu verabschieden. Ein Misstrauensvotum w\u00fcrde die Regierung st\u00fcrzen und Pr\u00e4sident Macron s\u00e4he sich gezwungen, Anfang 2025 eine neue Regierung zu bilden. Dadurch k\u00f6nnte sich die Verabschiedung des Haushalts mindestens um ein weiteres Vierteljahr verz\u00f6gern. Der genaue Zeitpunkt einer Einigung l\u00e4sst sich nur schwer vorhersagen, aber das Ergebnis wird wahrscheinlich schlechter ausfallen als erwartet. Da ein Konsens nur durch Zugest\u00e4ndnisse an jede einzelne Partei erzielt werden kann, k\u00f6nnte das Haushaltsdefizit 2025 deutlich \u00fcber 5% liegen. Dies k\u00f6nnte zu weiteren Abfl\u00fcssen aus dem Inland und zu Rating-Herabstufungen f\u00fchren. Obwohl die Spreads von franz\u00f6sischen Staatsanleihen (OAT) gegen\u00fcber Bundesanleihen so hoch sind wie seit f\u00fcnf Jahren nicht mehr, gehen wir davon aus, dass franz\u00f6sische Verm\u00f6genswerte in den kommenden Monaten weiter unter Druck stehen werden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>USA &#8211; Wirtschaftsdaten im Fokus<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In den USA liegt das Hauptaugenmerk in der kommenden Woche auf den Makrodaten. Am Montag werden die ISM-Zahlen Aufschluss dar\u00fcber geben, wie sich die Konjunktur im November entwickelt hat. In der zweiten Wochenh\u00e4lfte stehen die Arbeitsmarktdaten im Vordergrund. F\u00fcr November werden 200.000 neue Jobs ausserhalb der Landwirtschaft erwartet. Ein solches Ergebnis k\u00f6nnte eine Zinssenkung durch die Fed in der darauffolgenden Woche beg\u00fcnstigen. Wir halten eine Zinssenkung im Dezember nach wie vor f\u00fcr wahrscheinlich. Die US-Notenbank wird jedoch die Gelegenheit nutzen, um die M\u00e4rkte auf eine etwas restriktivere Haltung einzustimmen als noch im November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Algebris Investments&#8217; <em>Global Credit Team<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Frankreich &#8211; Haushaltsstreit geht in die n\u00e4chste Runde In Frankreich sorgt das Ringen um die Staatsfinanzen f\u00fcr politische Turbulenzen. Da die rechtsnationale Partei Rassemblement National (RN) um Marine Le Pen weitere Zugest\u00e4ndnisse bei den im Haushaltsplan enthaltenen Gesetzesentw\u00fcrfen fordert, droht Premierminister Barnier ein Misstrauensvotum im Dezember. Das w\u00e4re der letzte Ausweg, um den Haushalt im [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":25950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212],"tags":[],"asset-class":[228],"algebris-themes":[278],"class_list":["post-22942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-views-de","asset-class-credit-de","algebris-themes-global-credit-theme-de"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Montag, 2. 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