{"id":27634,"date":"2025-08-25T09:12:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T09:12:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/?p=27634"},"modified":"2025-08-25T09:12:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T09:12:21","slug":"global-credit-bullets-montag-25-august-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/de\/market-views-de\/global-credit-bullets-montag-25-august-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Montag, 25. August 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Jackson Hole \u2013 Zinssenkung im September faktisch besiegelt<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Auf der j\u00e4hrlichen geldpolitischen Konferenz in Jackson Hole schlug Fed-Chairman Jerome Powell einen deutlich dovishen Ton an. In seiner vorbereiteten Er\u00f6ffnungsrede betonte er, dass die Risiken f\u00fcr das Mandat der Notenbank inzwischen st\u00e4rker in Richtung Besch\u00e4ftigung verschoben seien und angesichts des hohen Grades an Restriktivit\u00e4t eine Anpassung angezeigt sein k\u00f6nnte. Diese Aussage wird von den M\u00e4rkten als Signal f\u00fcr eine Zinssenkung im September interpretiert. Die Arbeitsmarktdaten f\u00fcr August stehen zwar noch aus, doch die tiefgreifenden Revisionen des Juli-Berichts haben Powell bereits zu einem klaren Bekenntnis zur Lockerung veranlasst. Auch bei den Inflationsaussagen zeigte er sich zur\u00fcckhaltender: Die Effekte der Z\u00f6lle werden nun als tempor\u00e4rer eingestuft als noch im Juli. Wir erwarten zwei Zinssenkungen im laufenden Jahr. 2026 bleibt jedoch mit Blick auf den anstehenden Vorsitzwechsel im Mai hochgradig unsicher. Die US-Zinskurve preist inzwischen ein Terminal Rate-Niveau von 3 % ein \u2013 im Einklang mit dem langfristig neutralen Zins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Ukraine-Krieg \u2013 Schwindende Hoffnungen<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Im August hatten sich Hoffnungen auf eine Ann\u00e4herung im Ukraine-Konflikt zun\u00e4chst verst\u00e4rkt, nachdem Pr\u00e4sident Trump und Pr\u00e4sident Putin zusammentrafen. Anschliessend gab es Berichte \u00fcber Gespr\u00e4chsbereitschaft von Pr\u00e4sident Selenskyj in Form m\u00f6glicher territorialer Zugest\u00e4ndnisse, w\u00e4hrend US-Quellen die Option von Sicherheitsgarantien seitens Washington ins Spiel brachten. Doch die darauffolgenden Kommentare des Kremls d\u00e4mpften diese Erwartungen deutlich: Russland zeigt bislang keine Eile, einen Abschluss zu erreichen, und die von den USA in Aussicht gestellten Sekund\u00e4rsanktionen wurden bislang nicht umgesetzt. Wir rechnen daher nicht mit einer kurzfristigen Konfliktl\u00f6sung, da f\u00fcr Russland momentan keine ausreichenden Anreize bestehen. Gleichwohl mindert eine m\u00f6gliche Einigung langfristige geopolitische Risiken, insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund, dass die europ\u00e4ische Gasversorgung nach 2023 wieder voll stabilisiert ist. Angesichts der engen Bewertungen im europ\u00e4ischen Kredit- und Aktienmarkt sehen wir eine Beilegung des Konflikts zwar als risikoreduzierenden Faktor, jedoch nicht als unmittelbaren Markttreiber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Algebris Investments&#8217; <em>Global Credit Team<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jackson Hole \u2013 Zinssenkung im September faktisch besiegelt Auf der j\u00e4hrlichen geldpolitischen Konferenz in Jackson Hole schlug Fed-Chairman Jerome Powell einen deutlich dovishen Ton an. In seiner vorbereiteten Er\u00f6ffnungsrede betonte er, dass die Risiken f\u00fcr das Mandat der Notenbank inzwischen st\u00e4rker in Richtung Besch\u00e4ftigung verschoben seien und angesichts des hohen Grades an Restriktivit\u00e4t eine Anpassung [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":27627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[212],"tags":[],"asset-class":[228],"algebris-themes":[278],"class_list":["post-27634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-views-de","asset-class-credit-de","algebris-themes-global-credit-theme-de"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Montag, 25. 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In seiner vorbereiteten Er\u00f6ffnungsrede betonte er, dass die Risiken f\u00fcr das Mandat der Notenbank inzwischen st\u00e4rker in Richtung Besch\u00e4ftigung verschoben seien und angesichts des hohen Grades an Restriktivit\u00e4t eine Anpassung [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/de\/market-views-de\/global-credit-bullets-montag-25-august-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Algebris Investments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-25T09:12:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-25T09:12:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/media.algebris.com\/content\/AdobeStock_219176067-web.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrea Molteni\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrea Molteni\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/de\/market-views-de\/global-credit-bullets-montag-25-august-2025\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/de\/market-views-de\/global-credit-bullets-montag-25-august-2025\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andrea Molteni\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/de\/#\/schema\/person\/4b3d11dd0f7d6e3130de26cc9436a0bc\"},\"headline\":\"GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Montag, 25. 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