{"id":28753,"date":"2025-12-01T10:58:42","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T10:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/?p=28753"},"modified":"2025-12-01T10:56:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T10:56:52","slug":"global-credit-bullets-lunedi-1-dicembre-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/it\/market-views-it\/global-credit-bullets-lunedi-1-dicembre-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Luned\u00ec, 1 dicembre 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>UK &#8211; <strong>Bilancio: aggiustamento fiscale posticipato, rischio evento alle spalle<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Mercoled\u00ec scorso la Cancelliera Reeves ha presentato il bilancio, dopo una fuga di notizie dell\u2019OBR a pochi minuti dal discorso. I tassi hanno avuto un rally iniziale grazie a un margine di manovra di circa 22 miliardi di sterline, superiore alle attese, ma il movimento si \u00e8 riassorbito rapidamente quando \u00e8 diventata evidente la struttura fortemente back-loaded della manovra. Il punto critico \u00e8 che l\u2019aggiustamento fiscale \u00e8 sostanzialmente rinviato al 2028\u20132029, con misure di consolidamento che diventano rilevanti solo nella parte finale dell\u2019orizzonte. Questo alimenta dubbi sulla credibilit\u00e0 del percorso, mentre nel breve la spesa \u00e8 destinata a crescere. Il supporto ai gilt \u00e8 arrivato in seguito dal DMO, che ha indicato un piano di emissioni concentrato sul tratto breve della curva e quindi meno gravoso in termini di offerta di duration. La sterlina \u00e8 rimasta sostanzialmente stabile. La reazione pi\u00f9 netta si \u00e8 vista sulla volatilit\u00e0 implicita, scesa in modo marcato una volta archiviato il rischio evento, senza segnali di panico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>USA &#8211; <strong>Macro resiliente, Fed pi\u00f9 accomodante<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Il precedente repricing hawkish delle attese sul FOMC stava venendo assorbito in modo ordinato, ma le dichiarazioni di Williams, interpretate come un\u2019apertura a tagli nel breve periodo, hanno riacceso la domanda sul front-end e innescato un repricing deciso dei rendimenti a breve. Il movimento \u00e8 stato rafforzato da dati macro morbidi, con vendite al dettaglio e prezzi alla produzione sotto consenso. La riunione di dicembre prezza ora circa l\u201980% di probabilit\u00e0 di un taglio. Con ancora due settimane davanti e i principali dati sul mercato del lavoro attesi solo dopo il prossimo meeting, il mercato continua a spostarsi verso una lettura pi\u00f9 accomodante della funzione di reazione della Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Algebris Investments&#8217; <em>Global Credit Team<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UK &#8211; Bilancio: aggiustamento fiscale posticipato, rischio evento alle spalle Mercoled\u00ec scorso la Cancelliera Reeves ha presentato il bilancio, dopo una fuga di notizie dell\u2019OBR a pochi minuti dal discorso. I tassi hanno avuto un rally iniziale grazie a un margine di manovra di circa 22 miliardi di sterline, superiore alle attese, ma il movimento [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":28750,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[130],"tags":[],"asset-class":[224],"algebris-themes":[235],"class_list":["post-28753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-views-it","asset-class-credit-it","algebris-themes-global-credit-it"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Luned\u00ec, 1 dicembre 2025 - Algebris Investments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.algebris.com\/it\/market-views-it\/global-credit-bullets-lunedi-1-dicembre-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GLOBAL CREDIT BULLETS | Luned\u00ec, 1 dicembre 2025 - Algebris Investments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"UK &#8211; Bilancio: aggiustamento fiscale posticipato, rischio evento alle spalle Mercoled\u00ec scorso la Cancelliera Reeves ha presentato il bilancio, dopo una fuga di notizie dell\u2019OBR a pochi minuti dal discorso. 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