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The sweeping Republican victory in US elections revived the American dream. President Trump would be a positive disruptive force for America. Active fiscal policy and tariffs would boost internal demand, and supply-side economics would provide funding and expand capacity. US macro would undoubtedly benefit, although perhaps at the cost of temporary higher inflation and interest […]
MEGA – Make Europe Great Again In a historic shift, Germany broke free of fiscal shackles last week to announce a €500bn infrastructure package and uncapped military spending exempt from the debt brake. The EU simultaneously announced a €800bn package, 150bn via EU loans and 650bn by EU member states to be spent on rearming […]
Ukraine – Pivotal moment for Europe Friday’s talks between President Trump and President Zelensky derailed, leaving Europe effectively at a crossroad. Either European countries strengthen their resolve via higher defense allocation in individual and common budgets and stronger sanctions enforcement, or the continent’s role will turn more marginal from a global geopolitics perspectives, plus the […]
This piece was first published on Bruegel’s website and is available at: Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance The European Commission’s so-called first Omnibus package, published 26 February, has as its objective “unprecedented simplification” while keeping to the goals of the European Green Deal – the European Union’s net-zero plan – “enabling […]
European Equities outperformance: More Than a Bounce? How reporting season is going: Halfway through the Q4 earnings season, Stoxx 600 Q4 EPS growth is running at 3% y/y comfortably above the -1% growth that consensus expected at this stage, with financials and healthcare delivering the main upside surprise. Ex-financials, Stoxx 600 Q4 earnings growth is tracking at -1%, though this is above consensus of -4%. Most of the beat came from cyclicals and consumer discretionary, putting […]
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