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The United States is facing growing uncertainty due to rising tariffs and a projected $10 trillion in debt issuance, which is pressuring markets and weakening confidence in the dollar. Investors are increasingly hedging as they doubt the administration’s commitment to stable, growth-oriented policies. In contrast, Europe is experiencing a revival, led by Germany’s industrial policy […]
US-China talks – Looking for breakthrough This week, U.S. and Chinese officials are set to meet in Geneva from 9 to 12 May, marking the first high-level trade talks since tariffs escalated to 145% on U.S. imports and 125% on Chinese goods. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the American delegation. President Trump had stated […]
US – Fed on hold The Fed will leave rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% this Wednesday and provide no new forecast projections. Going into the blackout period, Fed speak had been mostly cautious, amid diverging signals of a slowing economy but resilient inflation. Last Friday’s labour market data beat expectations with NFP adding 177k jobs, above […]
IMF – Waning investor trust in US assets Last week, the Global Credit Team attended the IMF meetings in Washington DC. The IMF meetings in Washington DC painted a marginally positive picture on US trade policy but highlighted medium-term concerns over a loss of trust in US assets, amid chaotic policy choices and waning US […]
Bearish Lows, Bullish Highs: A week of extremes The first week of April was characterised by markets on a rollercoaster. On Monday 7th, the S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, nearing bear market territory. Treasury yields rebounded after an early drop, while the VIX hit 60 intraday—reflecting intense volatility. Traders were pricing in four rate cuts from […]
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