Last week, we attended the IMF/World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Over the week, we attended more than 60 meetings with policymakers, central bankers, political and macro analysts, and the global investor community. The consensus is constructive on growth and not too negative on inflation risks. Carry trades and tech equities remain the most popular longs, […]

In our latest piece (The Algebris Bullet | Financial Rebellion – Algebris Investments) we argue that financial repression is increasingly turning into investor rebellion, with bond risks potentially being overpriced and creating more attractive opportunities in duration. While fiscal risks remain significant and stronger AI-driven productivity could keep rates higher for longer, increasingly hawkish positioning, […]

Over the past five years, US nominal GDP has grown at 7% per year. Over the same period, five-year Treasuries yielded less than 4% on average. As government debts become increasingly unsustainable, keeping interest rates below fair value is the only viable option. The effect so far has been an exodus from long-dated bonds, steeper […]