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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
Iran – Open for de-escalation Last week’s developments in the Middle East reinforced the market’s optimistic stance and added further fuel to the rally, as Iran and the US were reported to be moving closer to a one-page memo aimed at ending the war. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy announced that transit through the Strait of […]
Middle East — Iran stalemate, OPEC cracks The situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. The naval blockade is still in place, with only a limited number of ships able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Headlines during the week suggested that President Trump may be prepared to maintain the blockade in place for […]
Iran – Truce delayed, oil elevated Another week, another round of headline-driven volatility, with negotiations once again delayed. Earlier last week, planned US–Iran talks failed to materialise, further highlighting the fragility of the diplomatic process. Reports last Thursday also suggested that Mohammad Ghalibaf has stepped back from negotiations, implying that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps […]
V-Shaped recovery as ceasefire hopes unlock risk appetite After a sharp sell-off triggered in late February by the US-Israel strikes on Iran and the ensuing disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, markets spent most of March on the defensive, with the Euro Stoxx 600 posting its worst month since mid-2022 at nearly […]
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