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Peace Dividend Building on a year already defined by geopolitical risk and AI excitement, equity markets pushed higher through the period, with the long-running US-Iran ceasefire negotiations finally crystallising into a framework agreement that resulted in the (temporary) reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and pulled oil sharply lower. The relief rally was global, but […]
FED – Hawkish debut, less forward guidance Last week, the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with expectations. Kevin Warsh delivered a solid and credible first appearance, but the combination of his tone and higher inflation projections triggered a hawkish market reaction, with front-end rates moving more than 10bps higher. However, […]
Iran – 14 Points of Agreement Last week’s escalation shifted decisively toward a deal. After days of missile launches, drone attacks and renewed threats from President Trump, markets remained relatively resilient, treating most of the rhetoric as noise rather than a sign of imminent military action. The turning point came on Thursday, ahead of SpaceX’s […]
US vs RoW – Diverging narrative The latest round of macro data has reinforced a clear divergence between the US and the rest of the world. While activity indicators outside the US remain relatively soft, the US economy continues to show signs of resilience, with growth momentum still firm and inflation risks not fully contained. […]
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