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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
This note captures the Algebris global credit team’s main takeaways from the IMF meetings this month. Across both developed and emerging markets, investors remain constructive on risk despite the recent geopolitical shock. The clearest shared views were that energy disruption is still underpriced, defence spending is a lasting structural theme and the US dollar remains […]
Markets – War is over Hopes for a long-lasting understanding within the Middle-East conflict are now pervasive, pushing risk markets back to highs. While rhetoric is sometimes harsh, both the US and Iran are displaying a relatively strong appetite for a deal. Markets are thus focusing more on intentions than on any actual progress. The […]
China is advancing at exceptional speed in AI, robotics, biotech, green transition, electric vehicles, and other key innovation sectors. Its cost advantage versus the US is enormous, while performance remains highly competitive. The main drag on the economy has been the long adjustment after the property bubble burst, which has weighed on local consumption. However, […]
Iran – From missiles to meetings, a 10-point truce Last week, President Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran, effectively pausing an escalation that had spread across multiple fronts in the region. While missile and drone activity continued on the day of the announcement, attacks quickly dropped to near zero shortly thereafter. The ceasefire appears […]
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