Over the past five years, US nominal GDP has grown at 7% per year. Over the same period, five-year Treasuries yielded less than 4% on average. As government debts become increasingly unsustainable, keeping interest rates below fair value is the only viable option. The effect so far has been an exodus from long-dated bonds, steeper […]

Global rates markets continued to display extraordinary volatility last week, led by French bond markets. The selloff became so extreme when Bund/OAT widened above 150 basis points that this finally spilled over into risk assets, widening credit spreads and pressuring equities. The narrative for the ECB shifted too, as markets questioned which steps the ECB […]

AI investment in the United States amounted to almost 1.8% of national output this year (600 billion dollars) and it is estimated to head for 2.5% in 2027 – a share that compares with the peaks of earlier general-purpose technology buildouts [1]. AI-related investment has become a dominant driver of US GDP growth, and the […]