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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
China is advancing at exceptional speed in AI, robotics, biotech, green transition, electric vehicles, and other key innovation sectors. Its cost advantage versus the US is enormous, while performance remains highly competitive. The main drag on the economy has been the long adjustment after the property bubble burst, which has weighed on local consumption. However, […]
Iran – From missiles to meetings, a 10-point truce Last week, President Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran, effectively pausing an escalation that had spread across multiple fronts in the region. While missile and drone activity continued on the day of the announcement, attacks quickly dropped to near zero shortly thereafter. The ceasefire appears […]
Iran – Between exit and escalation The war in Iran has now entered its second month, with uncertainty continuing to build. Communication from the Trump administration has been inconsistent and at times unclear. In last Wednesday’s address, the President outlined developments but provided little guidance on the endgame. He reiterated that failure to reach a […]
Iran – The gulf chess board Last Monday, President Trump announced that negotiations with Iran were underway, following earlier threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. Later in the week, he extended the negotiation window, postponing the deadline to 6th April. High-level talks are ongoing, with both sides attempting to maximize leverage ahead of any potential […]
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