Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | The Age of Fragility
Download the PDF The QE party is ending. Last year's Goldilocks global expansion has left the way to an environment of divergence, where the US continues to outperform the rest of the world and the Federal Reserve is the only central bank no longer behind the curve on policy normalisation. At the beginning of the year, we prepared…
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Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | Have Central Banks Missed the Exit Train?
Download the PDF After a decade of monetary stimulus, central banks have pledged to exit loose monetary policy. Except for the Fed, their attempts appear to be failing. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates, bringing 2-year yields up to around 2.5% and reacting to the Trump Administration’s fiscal stimulus, the largest on record during a peacetime…
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Video
Geopolitical Risks on the Rise, Algebris’ Gallo Says
Alberto Gallo, Algebris portfolio manager and head of macro strategies, spoke with Bloomberg's Anna Edwards and Manus Cranny about rising geopolitical risks, Iran's nuclear deal and Europe's growth on Bloomberg TV. Click below to watch the video. He also discussed monetary policy normalisation, Brexit and UK growth risks on Bloomberg Radio: click here to listen to the audio.
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News
Imperial College Future of Finance Conference: Market Efficiency and the End of QE
The end of QE heralds the return of volatility and the testing of the fragile foundations upon which we have built our economic recovery. Alberto Gallo joined Professor Andrea Buraschi today at Imperial College Business School for a panel discussion with Luke Ellis (CEO, Man Group) and Ryan Blute (Head of Global Wealth Management, PIMCO) on the distortionary impact of…
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News
The Algebris View: Monetary Policy Normalisation, Volatility and Fragile Systems
QE generated a strong economic recovery, built on fragile foundations. In our latest presentation to policymakers, we share our thoughts on financial fragility and why the recovery may be vulnerable to negative feedback loops in markets, rising geopolitical risk and still persistent imbalances in the public and private sector. Click here to download the presentation slides.
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Video
Algebris Says China’s Response to Tariffs Could Have Been Worse
Alberto Gallo, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, and Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbone Unit Trust Management, discuss China's response to U.S. tariffs. They speak on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | Is the World Running Out of Safe Havens?
Download the PDF The demand for certainty is one which is natural to man, but is nevertheless an intellectual vice. ... To endure uncertainty is difficult, but so are most of the other virtues.” - Bertrand Russell What is a safe haven asset? First, it is a refuge where investors can preserve capital in times of crisis. Second,…
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Video
Bloomberg: Algebris CEO Says Ray Dalio’s Short Strategy is a Losing One
Davide Serra, chief executive officer and founder at Algebris Investments, discusses why Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio is going to lose money on Italian banks. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Laqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)) For more information click here.
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Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | A Fragile System: The Return of Volatility
Download the PDF For some, the events of the past few weeks represent a standard correction, after which markets will return to normal. We think differently. We believe this is the start of a change in regime for markets. Central bank policy supported markets to boost wealth and consumption, through the so-called "wealth effect" transmission mechanism. It worked:…
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Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | The Bond Bull Run: Is This It?
Download the PDF “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” James Carville, Clinton administration advisor, 1993 The specter of a bond market selloff has been circling around…
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Video
Davos: Serra: Beyond the Paradise Papers: Can Global Tax Avoidance Be Stopped
Live Public Panel World Economic Forum 2018 Estimates are that multinational corporations and high-net-worth individuals have placed over $7.6 trillion in offshore companies. As the US cuts corporate tax rates and the EU considers tougher tax measures, what is the best way to reduce tax avoidance and tax evasion globally? Speakers Davide Serra CEO…
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Video
Bloomberg: Davos – Serra discusses markets and his thoughts on investing
Davide Serra, Chief Executive Officer and founder at Algebris Investments, discusses various markets and his thoughts on investing. He joins Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Markets" at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)
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News
FT: Euro-phoria requires reforms that strengthen the eurozone
The European crisis is over. Five long years after the 2011 double-dip recession and Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” pledge, the Eurozone recovery is finally real. The euro area will grow at nearly 2 per cent in 2018, according to IMF forecasts - and this time the periphery is joining the expansion. More surprising than macroeconomic data has…
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Video
Algebris Investments Is Positioned for Rising Yield Market
Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments portfolio manager, discusses positioning for a market where yields will rise. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
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News
Alberto Gallo: The Pursuit of Happiness
Why is today's young generation destined to be poorer than their parents? Why do we have $20tn in central bank balance sheets, but double-digit unemployment in many European countries? Why are stocks beating decade highs, yet small businesses struggle for financing? Are free-market capitalism and our debt-based financial system sustainable? The KCL Business Club invited…
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Video
Bloomberg: Gallo Says Macron’s China Trip Can Be a ‘Strong Positive’
Alberto Gallo, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, and Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, discuss French President Emmanuel Macron's trip to China and what it may mean for trade between the two nations. They speak with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
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News
Bocconi University Lecture: Escaping the QE Infinity Trap
Alberto Gallo, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Algebris Investments, presented at the Bocconi University a lecture on "Escaping the QE Infinity Trap". To view the presentation please click here.
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Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | 2018: Irrational Complacency
Download the PDF “Your loving give me such a thrill But your love don't pay my bills Now give me money That's what I want” Money – Barrett Strong, 1959 Ten long years after the crisis, volatility and fear seem to have disappeared from financial markets. A synchronous global expansion coupled with persistently loose monetary policy has produced a…
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FT: Davide Serra “I have an Italian heart but a British brain”
In the personal office gym of Davide Serra, chief executive of Algebris, there is a photograph of him standing on the razor-edged peak of the 12,500ft Aiguille de la Republique. Tiny, in a red windcheater, he grins, dwarfed by the mountain ranges around him. “I put it up there to remind me that I have to keep training and…
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News
Algebris Investments hires Abbas Ameli as Portfolio Manager to join its macro team
London, United Kingdom (November 22, 2017): Algebris has appointed Abbas Ameli as Portfolio Manager. He will be working alongside the macro team led by Alberto Gallo, together with Portfolio Managers Aditya Aney, Tao Pan and macro analyst Pablo Morenes. Abbas joins from Amundi, where he was a Portfolio Manager covering emerging market bonds and currencies. Alberto Gallo said: “Abbas’…
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News
WEF Article: How the American dream turned into greed and inequality
The American Dream is broken. Paul Ryan, speaker of the House of Representatives, recently stated that "in our country, the condition of your birth does not determine the outcome of your life." Yet the idea that every American has an equal opportunity to move up in life is false. Social mobility has declined over the past decades, median wages have stagnated…
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Silver Bullet
The Silver Bullet | The Central Bank Bubble: How Will It Burst?
Download the PDF Imagine a coin. Now there's a ninety percent chance of flipping the coin and getting heads, and a ten percent chance of getting tails: heads you win $5, tails you lose $30. Would you play the game? The short answer is yes, because it yields a positive probability-adjusted payoff. Now let’s imagine a different…
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