The central macro message from the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos is that the US may be moving away from the post-war order, forcing other nations to reinvest in defence and economic resilience.
Global growth remains strong, supported by large fiscal deficits, but that also keeps the door open to a resurgence of inflation. AI-led capex is significant and may be outpacing the realistic revenue opportunity by 2030, which could challenge current market pricing. Investors are also leaning further into global diversification, especially given a more unpredictable US policy backdrop and expectations for a weaker dollar.
We favour financials on yield-curve dynamics and operational leverage from early AI adoption, and we see gold as increasingly supported by central-bank demand and the search for politically independent reserves.
Watch Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) in his latest video.
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