Global Credit Bullets | Monday, 13th April 2026

Iran – From missiles to meetings, a 10-point truce

Last week, President Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran, effectively pausing an escalation that had spread across multiple fronts in the region. While missile and drone activity continued on the day of the announcement, attacks quickly dropped to near zero shortly thereafter. The ceasefire appears to be part of a broader US-led de-escalation effort, structured around a reported 10-point list aimed at creating a path toward negotiations. A key element of this de-escalation has been direct US pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid further escalation, particularly in Lebanon. Israel had been actively targeting Iran-linked assets and Hezbollah positions, raising the risk of a broader conflict via the Lebanese front. However, Washington appears to have intervened to halt further operations, effectively containing the risk of a multi-front war. Looking ahead, the truce is expected to open the door to formal talks, with diplomatic channels now reactivated, although the situation remains fragile. Weekend talks delivered no progress and the US is threatening a naval blockade in Hormuz, signalling no tolerance for deliberate closure of the strait during the truce.

Macro Implications – Shock fades, effects linger

Markets have mostly gone back to pre-war pricing in risk assets. Rates tell a different story. Investors have largely priced out a growth shock, but still see inflation as the lasting damage, as reflected in Treasury and Bund yields. If the truce holds, the hit to growth is expected be limited for now. Inflation, however, will stay under pressure. The earlier oil spike is still passing through to CPI. And markets may be underestimating second-round effects through supply chains, fertilizers, and food prices. The front end has already moved, but central banks are still likely to lean hawkish. Long-end yields also remain high, with fiscal concerns re-emerging as a key factor. Commodity prices have come off the highs, but a geopolitical premium is still embedded. As long as the truce remains fragile, that premium is unlikely to disappear.

Hungary – Tisza supermajority, end of Orbán era

In Hungary, Tisza records a historic landslide victory, and is set to secure a two-thirds constitutional majority, ousting Viktor Orbán after four consecutive terms and beating polls that pointed to an already historic simple majority. With 98.72% of votes counted, Tisza stands at 54% (138/199 seats), followed by Fidesz at 38% (55 seats). Record turnout at 80%, well above the 63% average and the previous 2022 high of 73.5%, underscores the strength of the mandate. Landslide victory delivers full legislative and constitutional control, enabling reforms required by the EU to unlock funding. Immediate reset in EU relations expected, with reform commitment likely sufficient to start releasing frozen EU investment grants and SAFE loans even before full implementation. RRF funds (€6.4bn) likely to flow as early as this summer as the EU moves swiftly to support Hungary, with exceptional flexibility also on loans. Strong mandate supports a shift toward more prudent fiscal policy and is a clear positive for Ukraine through reduced political frictions at the EU level.

Algebris Investments’ Global Credit Team