The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating a physical deficit and triggering stagflation through lower growth and higher inflation.
Markets have reacted quickly, but the moves so far remain relatively limited, suggesting further downside risk for risky assets. With investor positioning still very long after a strong two-year rally, the current shock may represent the early phase of a broader period of volatility.
Watch Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager, Algebris Investments) in his latest video.
For more information about Algebris and its products, or to be added to our distribution lists, please contact Investor Relations at algebrisIR@algebris.com. Visit Algebris Insights for past commentaries.
Any opinion expressed is that of Algebris, is not a statement of fact, is subject to change and does not constitute investment advice.
No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained in this document or their accuracy or completeness. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document by any of Algebris Investments, its members, employees or affiliates and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions.
© Algebris Investments. Algebris Investments is the trading name for the Algebris Group.
Apple Podcast
Spotify
Spreaker
YouTubeThese podcasts should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. These recordings are for informational purposes and have been prepared by Algebris (UK) Limited (“Algebris”). Our podcasts are not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or advice, and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Opinions expressed are as of the date of recording and are subject to change. The views and opinions of any guest participants on these podcasts are not necessarily those of Algebris and its affiliates. The information and opinions contained in these recordings are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by to be reliable by Algebris and are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. They may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. There is no guarantee that these will come to pass. Reliance upon information on this site and/or the recordings is at the sole discretion of the reader and/or listener.
© Algebris Investments. Algebris Investments is the trading name for the Algebris Group.
