Venezuela – Leadership change, oil on focus
The United States conducted a targeted raid on Saturday, 3rd January 2026, aimed at apprehending Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro and transferring him to the United States for prosecution. The operation’s objective was to secure access to the world’s largest oil reserves while sending a strong geopolitical signal globally. A re-acceleration of oil production, currently running at roughly one-third of its previous peak, will nevertheless require substantial investment and time. In this context, the US administration swiftly announced a series of planned investments from American oil companies intended to revive production, adding further downward pressure on oil prices. Venezuelan sovereign and quasi-sovereign PDVSA bonds rallied by around 30%, as investor optimism surged after years of dictatorship. However, based on historical precedents such as Iraq, negotiations are unlikely to be straightforward for bondholders, particularly with the United States playing a dominant role and likely claiming a share of future oil revenues.
Greenland – Arctic chessboard
Following the successful operation in Venezuela, President Trump shifted his focus and rhetoric towards Greenland. The US administration now recognises Greenland’s pivotal strategic importance in terms of national security and supply chains, and aims to secure its position in the region. Trump is likely to push for a stronger US influence to preclude any Russian or Chinese activity in the Arctic. However, military intervention appears highly unlikely, given Denmark’s NATO membership and the strong stance of the European Union, both of which set a high political and institutional barrier.
United States – Affordability takes centre stage ahead of the midterms
3rd November 2026 marks a critical date with US midterm elections scheduled for that day. As cost-of-living pressures continue to rise, the Trump administration’s agenda has increasingly shifted towards affordability. A range of measures is being considered, from lowering mortgage rates to reducing healthcare costs, in an effort to ease inflationary pressures. The president is expected to leverage every available platform to shape the political narrative in his favour, from immigration to national security, deploying a broad set of actions across multiple themes to boost public support ahead of the elections.
Algebris Investments’ Global Credit Team
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